This weekend, I published a comprehensive overview of the epic hundred-billion-dollar Qualcomm versus Broadcom merger battle that has taken place over the past few weeks. In that post, I concluded that … the Trump administration is going to attempt to maintain jurisdiction over the merger regardless of Broadcoms redomicile process [back to the US], and will likely end up negative on the deal although it may not outright block it. Not only did the Trump administration move faster than expected to make a decision on the merger through CFIUS — the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States ( TechCrunchs overview of the committee here) — but it decided to unilaterally block the transaction from taking place. While not unprecedented in the history of CFIUS, this is an incredible decision on a U.S. tech merger, and has massive ramifications for tech company valuations and strategy going forward. While there are many issues at stake in the merger, the one that drove interest in Washington has been Qualcomms leadership role in 5G, a technology that the Trump administration considers to be a national security priority. Only two companies in the world have the technological prowess today in this emerging standard: U.S.-based Qualcomm and China-based Huawei. The Pentagon and national security beltway types have been deeply concerned about Huawei technology encroaching on U.S. telecom infrastructure, even going so far as to block the introduction of Huaweis new mobile phone from being introduced on AT&Ts network. Broadcom is Singapore-domiciled, but has the majority of its workers and office space in North America. However, it has a reputation — whether earned or not — of playing a classic private equity game of massively cutting R&D to boost short-term profits. Washingtons concern has been that a Broadcom takeover of Qualcomm would mean that Americas only player in the 5G race would be eliminated through budget cutting, leaving China to monopolize a key technology standard for a generation. There are a lot of unique properties here: the size of the transaction, the complicated background of Qualcomm and Broadcom, the recent timing of Trumps tariffs and other protectionist measures and the focus on telecom, which has traditionally been very sensitive in DC security circles. That said, it is now clear that the Trump administration intends to empower CFIUS to review more technology deals, particularly when companies are potentially transacting with China and other declared strategic competitors. If such a pattern continues, we can expect to see potential declines in valuations for technology companies, which will no longer have deep-pocketed Chinese buyers as potential acquirers. Thats not all, though. A reform measure currently in Congress would extend CFIUS authority to potentially include minority investments as well — such as rounds of venture capital. While that bill is not yet firmed up, it could massively chill Chinese venture investment in Silicon Valley, which has been robust and expanding over the past few years. Its important to note that whatever the rhetoric, this was not about jobs or the economy directly. Qualcomm was expected to stay in the United States along with most of its workers, and Broadcom has already announced its decision to redomicile back to the United States following the passage of the tax cuts at the end of 2017. This is about security, and which country is going to hold power in the 21st century. The Trump administration has declared that its foreign policy will be America First, and this decision lives up to that slogan. China is the second largest economic market in the world, and almost certainly the second most important technology market after the United States. A disruption in the flow of talent and capital between these markets — as we witnessed today — will force company CEOs to resist foreign capital and potentially accept lower valuations as a result. It will also limit the strategic opportunities for global expansion, requiring companies to adapt their strategies not just in China, but elsewhere in the world. In short, todays decision is the pen stroke heard around the world.
( Reuters) — U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday blocked microchip maker Broadcoms proposed takeover of Qualcomm on national security grounds, ending what would have been the technology industrys biggest deal ever amid concerns that it would give China the upper hand in mobile communications. The presidential order reflected a calculation that the United States lead in creating technology and setting standards for the next generation of mobile cell phone communications would be lost to China if Singapore-based Broadcom took over San Diego-based Qualcomm, according to a White House official. Qualcomm has emerged as one of the biggest competitors to Chinas Huawei Technologies Co [HWT.UL] in the sector, making Qualcomm a prized asset. Qualcomm had earlier rebuffed Broadcoms $117 billion bid, which was under investigation by the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a multi-agency panel led by the Treasury Department that reviews the national security implications of acquisitions of U.S. corporations by foreign companies. In a letter on March 5, CFIUS said it was investigating whether Broadcom would starve Qualcomm of research dollars that would allow it to compete and also cited the risk of Broadcoms relationship withthird party foreign entities. While it did not identify those entities, the letter repeatedly described Qualcomm as the leading company in so-called 5G technology development and standard setting. A shift to Chinese dominance in 5G would have substantial negative national security consequences for the United States, CFIUS said. While the United States remains dominant in the standards-setting space currently, China would likely compete robustly to fill any void left by Qualcomm as a result of this hostile takeover. A White House official on Monday confirmed that the national security concerns related to the risks of Broadcoms relationship with third party foreign entities. A source familiar with CFIUS thinking had said that, if the deal was completed, the U.S. military was concerned that within 10 years,there would essentially be a dominant player in all of these technologies and thats essentially Huawei, and then the American carriers would have no choice. They would just have to buy Huawei (equipment).Huawei has been forging closer commercial ties with big telecom operators across Europe and Asia, putting it in prime position to lead the global race for 5G networks despite U.S. concerns. Huawei has a dominant position in China, which is set to become the worlds biggest 5G market by far, and has also made inroads in the rest of world to compete with rivals such as Ericsson (ERICb.ST) and Nokia (NOKIA.HE) in several lucrative markets, including countries that are longstanding U.S. allies. Qualcomm is also a major player in 5G, estimated to have 15 percent of 5G-essential patents in the world, compared with 11 percent for Nokia and 10 percent for all of China, according to a Jefferies report citing LexInnova research. Many smartphone makers are counting on Qualcomm to deliver its 5G chipset on time in late 2018 to roll out their 5G phones in 2019. Shares of Broadcom rose less than 1.0 percent to $264.10 in after-hours trade while Qualcomm fell 4.3 percent to $60.14. Broadcom said it was reviewing the presidential order. Broadcom strongly disagrees that its proposed acquisition of Qualcomm raises any national security concerns, it said in a statement in response to the decision. Qualcomm, which had delayed its annual shareholder meeting during the CFIUS review, set the new date for March 23. The move by Trump to kill the deal comes only months after the U.S. president himself stood next to Broadcom Chief Executive Hock Tan at the White House, announcing the companys decision to move its headquarters to the United States and calling itone of the really great, great companies. This is the fifth time a U.S. president has blocked a deal based on CFIUS objections and the second deal Trump has stopped since assuming office slightly over a year ago. The proposed takeover of Qualcomm by the Purchaser (Broadcom) is prohibited, and any substantially equivalent merger, acquisition, or takeover, whether effected directly or indirectly, is also prohibited, the presidential order released on Monday said. The order citedcredible evidence that led Trump to believe that Broadcoms taking control of Qualcommmight take action that threatens to impair the national security of the United States. Broadcom had struggled to complete its proposed deal to buy Qualcomm, which had cited several concerns including the price offered and potential antitrust hurdles. The presidential decision to block the deal cannot be appealed. However, it is not clear what rules Broadcom would have to follow if it goes ahead with announced plans to move its headquarters to the United States. Companies may challenge CFIUSs jurisdiction in court but may not challenge the inter-agency panels national security findings, a CFIUS expert said. If Broadcom decides to press on with its effort to buy Qualcomm, it would be wise to drop the matter for now while the company quietly wraps up its move to the United States, a second CFIUS expert said. Once the move is done, Broadcom could argue that CFIUS does not have jurisdiction, the second expert said. Both spoke privately to protect business relationships.